하워드 막스의 투자조언 (파이낸셜 타임즈 기고문)

오크트리 캐피탈 매니지먼트의 대표이자 저명한 투자자인 하워드 막스가 오늘 인상적인 기고문을 파이낸셜 타임즈에 남겨서 스크랩 해두었다. 요즘 같은 흔들리는 장에 마음을 잡을 수 있는 이야기들을 해주었다.

 

세줄 요약

1. 사람들은 심리적인 요인으로 투자하며 가격이 떨어져서 팔거나 가격이 올라서 산다.

2. 주식 매도는 별개의 의사결정이 아니라, 다른 주식으로 갈아탔을 때 또는 현금을 보유했을 때 확실한 이점이 있는지에 대한 비교하고 의사결정할 수 있는 충분한 시간이 필요하다.

3. 주식매도는 투자전망과 냉철한 분석을 통해 이루어져야 한다. (시장의 흔들림이 동기가 되면 안 된다.)

 

왜 많은 투자자들이 너무 일찍 매도하는가?

 

작가는 Oaktree Capital Management의 공동 창립자이자 공동 의장입니다.

33년 동안 투자자들에게 메모를 작성하면서 판매 문제에 대해 메모를 한 적이 없습니다. 하지만 많은 투자자들이 장기에 집중하지 못하고 매도하는 이유를 이해하는 것이 중요하기 때문에 지금 그렇게 하고 있습니다.

2015년 메모에 썼듯이, 저는 대부분의 투자자들이 너무 많이 거래하고 자신에게 해를 끼치며 시장의 비유동성에 대한 최선의 해결책은 유동성에 의존하지 않고 성공을 위해 거래하는 장기적 포트폴리오를 구축하는 것이라고 믿습니다. .

나는 사람들이 투자를 판매하는 두 가지 주요 이유가 있다고 생각합니다. 상승하기 때문이고 하락하기 때문입니다. 많은 투자자 행동이 심리학에 의해 동기가 부여되기 때문에 이것을 이해하려면 인간 행동에 대한 통찰력이 필요합니다.

사람들은 자신의 자산이 이익을 나타내는 것을 좋아하고 이러한 증가가 사라질 것을 두려워하기 때문에 많은 판매가 발생합니다. 따라서 그들은 "수익 창출"에 참여합니다.

대부분의 사람들은 후회와 당혹감과 같은 불쾌한 감정을 피하기 위해 많은 시간과 노력을 투자합니다. 그리고 투자자가 큰 이익이 증발하는 것을 지켜보는 것보다 더 많은 자기 비난을 유발할 수 있는 것은 무엇입니까? 대신, 이익을 "장부"에 넣고 절대 되돌릴 수 없는 평가된 자산을 판매하는 경우. 하지만 그것만으로는 매도할 충분한 이유가 되지 않습니다. 현재의 펀더멘털, 잠재력, 자산 가격의 공정성을 고려해야 합니다.

나는 투자자들이 평가된 자산을 팔고 이익을 실현해서는 안 된다고 말하는 것은 아니지만, 단지 물건이 올랐다고 해서 물건을 파는 것은 확실히 이치에 맞지 않습니다. 또한 실현된 이익을 실현되지 않은 이익보다 덜 일시적인 것으로 보는 것은 일반적으로 실수라고 생각합니다. 판매 수익은 일반적으로 재투자됩니다. 즉, 이익과 원금이 다시 위험에 노출됩니다.

가치 있는 자산을 매각하여 이익을 얻는 것이 잘못된 것만큼이나, 가치가 떨어졌다고 해서 매도하는 것은 훨씬 더 나쁩니다. 오래된 톱은 우리가 "싸게 사서 비싸게 팔아야 한다"고 말했지만 분명히 많은 사람들이 자산이 떨어질수록 팔고자 하는 동기가 더 커집니다. 그들은 손실이 더 커지는 것을 걱정하지만, 떨어졌다는 이유로 물건을 파는 것은 다른 투자자들에게 큰 기회를 제공할 수 있는 실수입니다.

또한 투자자들은 하락이 임박하고 이를 피할 수 있는 능력이 있다고 믿기 때문에 매도에 참여하는 경우가 많습니다. 그러나 시장 타이밍에서 이익을 얻는 데 필요한 기술을 보유한 사람은 극소수입니다. 또한 높은 가격에도 매수 또는 보유하고 하락을 경험하는 것 자체는 치명적이지 않습니다. 일반적으로 모든 시장 고점 뒤에는 더 높은 고점이 따르며 결국 장기 수익률만 중요합니다.

이후 버전의 Benjamin Graham과 David Dodd의 Security Analysis의 편집자인 Sidney Cottle은 내가 투자에 대해 가장 좋아하는 설명 중 하나인 "상대적 선택의 원칙"을 소개했습니다. 모든 판매는 종종 상대 가치와 기회 비용을 둘러싼 일련의 질문을 제기합니다. 수익금으로 무엇을 할 건가요? 더 나은 수익을 낼 수 있다고 생각하는 것이 있습니까? 새로운 투자로 전환하면 무엇을 놓칠 수 있습니까? 전환하지 않고 자산을 포트폴리오에 계속 보유하기로 결정하면 무엇을 포기할 것입니까?

또는 판매하기로 결정하고 수익금을 재투자할 계획이 없을 수도 있습니다. 그런 경우, 현금으로 수익금을 보유하는 것이 판매한 물건을 보유했을 때보다 더 나아질 가능성은 얼마나 됩니까? 자산 매각은 절대 별개로 고려되어서는 안 되는 결정입니다.

물건이 올라서 팔지 말아야 하고, 내리기 때문에 팔지 말아야 한다면, 파는 것이 옳은가? 분명 잘 팔리는 이유가 있겠지만, 실수할까봐, 후회하고, 나쁘게 보일까봐 두려운 것과는 아무 상관이 없다. 오히려 현명한 판매 기회는 투자 전망을 기반으로 해야 하며 냉철한 재무 분석, 엄격함 및 규율을 통해 식별되어야 합니다.

대부분의 경제, 회사 및 시장은 긍정적인 기본 추세의 혜택을 받습니다. 투자자가 잘못된 판단을 내리고 잘못된 판매를 통해 시장 노출을 줄이면 이러한 추세에 완전히 참여하지 못할 것입니다. 투자에 있어 가장 큰 죄입니다. 가격이 하락한 후 필사적으로 물건을 팔고 부정적인 변동을 영구적인 손실로 바꾸고 장기적인 수익 복리의 기적에서 벗어나는 것은 더욱 사실입니다. 나에게 분명한 것은 정신적인 이유로 매도하는 것과는 반대로 단순히 투자하는 것이 훨씬 "가장 중요한 것"이라는 것입니다.

 

Why do so many investors sell out too early?

 

The writer is co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management

 

In 33 years of writing memos to investors, I’ve never dedicated one to the matter of selling. But I’m doing so now because it’s essential that we understand why many investors fail to focus on the long term and instead sell out.

 

As I wrote in a memo in 2015, I believe most investors trade too much and to their own detriment and that the best solution for illiquidity in markets is to build portfolios for the long term that don’t rely on liquidity and trading for their success.

 

I believe there are two main reasons why people sell investments: because they’re up and because they’re down. To understand this, you need insight into human behaviour, since a lot of investor actions are motivated by psychology.

 

A good deal of selling takes place because people like the fact that their assets show gains and are afraid these increases will go away. Thus they engage in “profit-taking”.

 

Most people invest a lot of time and effort trying to avoid unpleasant feelings like regret and embarrassment. And what could cause an investor more self-recrimination than watching a big gain evaporate? Instead, if you sell an appreciated asset that puts the gain “in the book” and it can never be reversed. But that’s not a sufficient reason to sell. Current fundamentals, their potential and the fairness of the asset’s price must be considered.

 

While I’m not saying investors should never sell appreciated assets and realise profits, it certainly doesn’t make sense to sell things just because they’re up. Also, I believe it’s usually a mistake to view realised gains as less transient than unrealised gains. Proceeds from sales are generally reinvested, meaning the profits — and the principal — are put back at risk.

 

As wrong as it is to sell appreciated assets solely to harvest gains, it’s even worse to sell things just because they’re down. While the old saw says we should “buy low, sell high”, clearly many people become more motivated to sell assets the more they decline. They worry about letting losses compound, but selling things just because they’re down is a mistake that can provide great opportunities to other investors.

 

Further, investors often engage in selling because they believe a decline is imminent and they have the ability to avoid it. However, there are very few people who possess the skill needed to profit from market timing. Additionally, buying or holding — even at elevated prices — and experiencing a decline is in itself far from fatal. Usually, every market high is followed by a higher one and, after all, only the long-term return matters.

 

Sidney Cottle, the editor of later versions of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s Security Analysis, introduced me to one of my favourite descriptions of investing: “the discipline of relative selection”. Every sale raises a series of questions, often surrounding relative values and opportunity costs. What will you do with the proceeds? Do you have something in mind that you think might produce a superior return? What might you miss by switching to the new investment? And what will you give up if you decide not to switch and continue to hold the asset in your portfolio?

 

Or perhaps you decide to sell and don’t plan to reinvest the proceeds. In that case, what’s the likelihood that holding the proceeds in cash will make you better off than you would have been if you had held on to the thing you sold? Selling an asset is a decision that absolutely must not be considered in isolation.

 

If you shouldn’t sell things because they’re up and you shouldn’t sell because they’re down, is it ever right to sell? There certainly are good reasons for selling, but they have nothing to do with the fear of making mistakes, experiencing regret and looking bad. Rather, opportunities for intelligent selling should be based on the outlook for the investment and they have to be identified through hardheaded financial analysis, rigour and discipline.

 

Most economies, companies and markets benefit from positive underlying trends. If investors use poor judgment and reduce market exposure through ill-conceived selling, they will fail to participate fully in those trends. That’s a cardinal sin in investing. It’s even more true of selling things in desperation after their prices have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses and dismounting from the miracle of the long-term compounding of returns. What’s clear to me is that as opposed to selling for reasons of psyche, simply being invested is by far “the most important thing”.